Miami-Dade County recorded 194 home sales of $10 million or more through August, already surpassing the 170 such sales closed in all of 2025, according to the Miami Herald. At that pace, the county is projected to finish 2026 with about 291 ultra-luxury transactions, which would break the previous record of 230 set in 2021.

The local numbers reflect gains in other Florida luxury markets. Luxury home prices in the Miami metro rose 18% year over year during the three months ending in July, the largest increase among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, according to a Redfin analysis. Tampa followed at 15.4%. Nationally, luxury prices rose 5.3% over the same period. Redfin defines luxury homes as those in the top 5% of a metro area's price range.

The gap between Miami's luxury and non-luxury segments is widening. Non-luxury prices in the Miami metro fell 1.3% during the same period, according to Redfin.

Key Biscayne and Coconut Grove feel the heat

In Coconut Grove, the luxury segment and the rest of the market are running at different speeds, according to Miami Today. Daniel Berman, CEO of Miami-based Mint Developers, told the publication that demand is strong and supply is low at the top end of new construction. At the lower end, he said, buyers have more options and more room to negotiate.

Berman attributed the strength at the high end to wealth continuing to move into South Florida and said cash buyers are less affected by elevated mortgage rates.

Cash and shrinking inventory drive the market

Cash purchases accounted for 37.8% of closed Miami-Dade sales in August and 50.5% of existing condo sales, according to Miami Realtors data cited by The Capitolist. Total active listings in the county fell 12.1% year over year to 15,825 in August, with single-family inventory dropping 19.2%.

Across South Florida, luxury single-family sales surged 19.1% year over year to 6,409 in the third quarter of 2026, according to a Keyes Company and Illustrated Properties luxury report cited by RISMedia. The region's average single-family sales price rose 11.6% to $2.5 million. Miami-Dade's luxury single-family transactions jumped 20.6% to 850, with the average price rising 13.2% to $3.29 million.

That trend extends across the state. In Sarasota County, nine single-family homes sold for $10 million or more during the third quarter, up from one a year earlier, according to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee (RASM). The Business Observer first reported the spike.

What it means locally

The broader Miami-Dade market, meanwhile, showed signs of cooling. Total home sales in the county fell 1.1% year over year in August, and single-family sales declined 3.1%, according to Miami Realtors.

Fewer than 400 new condo units are scheduled to enter the Coconut Grove market between 2026 and 2028, according to the David Siddons Group, as cited by Miami Today. That limited pipeline could keep pressure on prices in the Grove's luxury segment.

On Key Biscayne, the $237 million listing of a waterfront estate at 485 W. Matheson Dr. underscores the island's place in the ultra-luxury conversation. The 2.38-acre property, once part of President Richard Nixon's compound, was listed in April, the Miami Herald reported. Whether it sells near asking price remains to be seen, but a completed sale near that asking price would set a Miami-Dade residential record.